$EQR
Equity Residential
![EQR Results; Expectations/Moods/Share Prices](/content/images/size/w1378/2021/02/la-early-morning.jpeg)
EQR Results; Expectations/Moods/Share Prices
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Equity Residential (EQR) reported results last week showing improved quarter over quarter occupancy. While rents declined year over year, concessions/incentives have declined and rents have stabilized versus last quarter. LA, Boston, Orange Country and San Diego rank are expected to show relative strength for 2021. Of course, SF and
![LA is set to BOOM!](/content/images/size/w1378/2021/01/Hollywood.jpeg)
LA is set to BOOM!
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Happy new year - As I’ve mentioned previously, I believe that LA is on the precipice of a large, Hollywood-driven boom (I’m guessing 2H21) as: 1. Working through the backlog of un-produced film & TV from 2020 as COVID shut down production schedules for much of 2020. 2.
![Don't believe everything that you read over and over again](/content/images/size/w1378/2020/12/Downtown-SD.jpg)
Don't believe everything that you read over and over again
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Apartment REIT investors have heard two refrains throughout 2020: 1) California is dead (2) Urban areas are dead. To read the news, the death of CA seems a given -after all we lost not only Joe Rogan but Elon Musk and Oracle. Today after hours we have a sizable counterfactual.
3Q20 updates for EQR/AVB
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EQR and AVB reported weak results. The impact of the pandemic has hit urban areas hardest - causing increases in vacancy, declines in effective rents, and corresponding decreases in NOI. Occupancy @ EQR is ~94%. AVB saw occupancy as low as ~93% in Sept before rebounding to ~94% in October. Coupled
Tidbits: EQR follow up; New Actionable Investment Idea coming this week
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While I have a new actionable investment idea in the hopper, it is not yet ready to send out (interested readers: keep your eyes out this week either in your Inbox or at www.privateeyecapital.com [https://privateeyecapital.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=9817d763c853faa67051e844f&id=bb15970f62&e=
![The prudent sounding verbiage in sell-side reports can lead to terrible investment outcomes](/content/images/size/w1378/2020/09/Blah-Blah.png)
The prudent sounding verbiage in sell-side reports can lead to terrible investment outcomes
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This is in response to Baird's enlightening research piece (Seeking Alpha synopsis here [https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614408-wait-for-rent-growth-to-bottom-on-apartment-reits-baird] ) earlier this month letting us all know to wait for rents to bottom before buying apartment REITs. The wizards at Baird think this is what worked last time. Let me
![Equity Residential (EQR): Recap transaction could give shareholders ALL their money back while still owning ALL the apartments](/content/images/size/w1378/2020/09/Slightly-diff-SF-pic.jpg)
Equity Residential (EQR): Recap transaction could give shareholders ALL their money back while still owning ALL the apartments
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The 9/14 $2.4 billion California apartment [https://www.privateeyecapital.com/the-private-market-for-california-apartments-is-alive-well/] transaction lends credibility to the notion of being able to recapitalize Equity Residential (full writeup here [https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/] ), pay shareholders back 94-103% of their money invested (pretty much right away) and then still owning
![The private market for California apartments is Alive & Well](/content/images/size/w1378/2020/09/baybridge-1.png)
The private market for California apartments is Alive & Well
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Quick N Dirty: On 9/14/20, Aimco announced a series of transactions including the formation of a $2.4 bn JV with a passive institutional partner whereby LA/SF apartment properties were sold at a 4.2% cap rate/$592k per unit valuation. This valuation is consistent with what