$EQR
Equity Residential
EQR Results; Expectations/Moods/Share Prices
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Equity Residential (EQR) reported results last week showing improved quarter over quarter occupancy. While rents declined year over year, concessions/incentives have declined and rents have stabilized versus last quarter. LA, Boston, Orange Country and San Diego rank are expected to show relative strength for 2021. Of course, SF and
LA is set to BOOM!
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Happy new year - As I’ve mentioned previously, I believe that LA is on the precipice of a large, Hollywood-driven boom (I’m guessing 2H21) as: 1. Working through the backlog of un-produced film & TV from 2020 as COVID shut down production schedules for much of 2020. 2.
Don't believe everything that you read over and over again
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Apartment REIT investors have heard two refrains throughout 2020: 1) California is dead (2) Urban areas are dead. To read the news, the death of CA seems a given -after all we lost not only Joe Rogan but Elon Musk and Oracle. Today after hours we have a sizable counterfactual.
3Q20 updates for EQR/AVB
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EQR and AVB reported weak results. The impact of the pandemic has hit urban areas hardest - causing increases in vacancy, declines in effective rents, and corresponding decreases in NOI. Occupancy @ EQR is ~94%. AVB saw occupancy as low as ~93% in Sept before rebounding to ~94% in October. Coupled
Tidbits: EQR follow up; New Actionable Investment Idea coming this week
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While I have a new actionable investment idea in the hopper, it is not yet ready to send out (interested readers: keep your eyes out this week either in your Inbox or at www.privateeyecapital.com [https://privateeyecapital.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=9817d763c853faa67051e844f&id=bb15970f62&e=
The prudent sounding verbiage in sell-side reports can lead to terrible investment outcomes
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This is in response to Baird's enlightening research piece (Seeking Alpha synopsis here [https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614408-wait-for-rent-growth-to-bottom-on-apartment-reits-baird] ) earlier this month letting us all know to wait for rents to bottom before buying apartment REITs. The wizards at Baird think this is what worked last time. Let me
Equity Residential (EQR): Recap transaction could give shareholders ALL their money back while still owning ALL the apartments
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The 9/14 $2.4 billion California apartment [https://www.privateeyecapital.com/the-private-market-for-california-apartments-is-alive-well/] transaction lends credibility to the notion of being able to recapitalize Equity Residential (full writeup here [https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/] ), pay shareholders back 94-103% of their money invested (pretty much right away) and then still owning
The private market for California apartments is Alive & Well
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Quick N Dirty: On 9/14/20, Aimco announced a series of transactions including the formation of a $2.4 bn JV with a passive institutional partner whereby LA/SF apartment properties were sold at a 4.2% cap rate/$592k per unit valuation. This valuation is consistent with what
